Tumultuous Days Ahead as Israeli Election Campaigning Begins the original article November 29, 2000 NEWS ANALYSIS By DEBORAH SONTAG JERUSALEM, Nov. 29 As the Israeli election campaign unofficially kicked into gear today, local political experts forecast turbulence on all fronts. Anticipating a rematch of Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu in spring elections, they dourly envisaged a battle between two failed prime ministers against the backdrop of a deeply flawed political system and in the midst of a violent conflict with the Palestinians. And those were the optimists. "It's a very serious crisis," said Yaron Ezrahi, a leading political scientist. "In the middle of an emergency situation between us and the Palestinians, the Knesset is declaring a political war among the Jews. Usually democracies suspend the political process during such times. Not us. We choose to accentuate our domestic conflicts when the country is under siege." Clearly, the conflict will affect the campaign, and the campaign will affect the conflict. Already today, Mr. Barak canceled a brainstorming session on how to return to the peace table and devoted his time to political issues instead. But the violence would not be put aside: Israeli soldiers killed four Palestinians in Gaza whom they said were terrorists, and Palestinian gunmen critically wounded an Israeli motorist in the West Bank. On Monday, Mr. Barak, Israel's most decorated soldier, assumed his combat-ready posture when he faced down a Parliament, or Knesset, in revolt against him. He almost sneered when he pre-empted his opponents' initiative and gave them what they said they wanted: the chance to move to new general elections. In his remarks, Mr. Barak, a politician who does not consider himself a politician, lamented that petty politics had won the day. A responsible government does not contemplate holding elections during a national emergency, he told the lawmakers. Today, however, Mr. Barak was himself doing more than contemplating. He was checking out the competition. Mr. Barak met with Avraham Burg, the Parliament speaker, to ask whether Mr. Burg would challenge him for the Labor Party leadership. Mr. Burg, who was uncharacteristically silent today, is seriously considering it, a prospect that Mr. Barak seems to think of as a headache more than a threat. "The prime minister prefers to see this issue of an internal race as an episode that will be over soon," said Binyamin Ben Eliezer, the communications minister and a Barak loyalist. "The internal race needs to be held within a month or 40 days so that we will be free after that he, to conduct diplomatic and military affairs, and the party to prepare for elections." Many analysts believe that Mr. Barak needs to restore calm and secure some kind of peace deal with the Palestinians to win re-election. "Mr. Barak's fate is now in the hands of the man whom he supposedly despises more than anyone else: Yasir Arafat," Nahum Barnea, Israel's veteran political columnist, wrote today. But diplomatic initiatives will be very difficult in the midst of a charged election campaign, whatever Mr. Arafat's inclinations. Already, Mr. Barak's opponents are arguing that he has lost the mandate to make crucial decisions. "With 79 members voting against him, Barak has lost the ability to conduct the peace process in the period ahead," said Dore Gold, a former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations. "Add to that, Arafat is aware of Barak's needs and that means Barak's leverage is weaker than before, and he would have to be even more conciliatory at a time that the public has grown more hard-line." Ariel Sharon, leader of the opposition Likud Party, said today that he would challenge Mr. Barak for prime minister. But no Likud lawmakers have expressed support for Mr. Sharon publicly. And most here expect that Mr. Netanyahu, who quit politics when he was trounced by Mr. Barak in May 1999, will re-enter the fray to challenge Mr. Sharon for the party leadership and then Mr. Barak for the premiership. "In the polls that I have seen, Netanyahu will beat any other candidate by a considerable margin," said Meir Sheetrit, a Likud lawmaker. "Therefore I know that Netanyahu intends to return for the elections." Limor Livnat, a Likud official with ambitions of her own, said confidently: "Whoever heads the Likud will be the next prime minister of Israel. Even if we put a broom at the head and it won't be a broom he will beat Barak."' Mr. Barak agreed to go to new elections just 17 months after he took office for a four-year term. Mr. Netanyahu fell after 19 months. This has led some Israelis to question whether the political system is as much at fault as the leaders. "When I look at this from an apolitical point of view, I see here the second prime minister to fall in the middle of his term of office and I'm beginning to worry that we are entering into a whirlwind of chronic political instability," said Yuval Steinitz, a Likud legislator. Some Israelis blame the four-year-old elections system that has made Israel into a quasi-Parliamentary, quasi-presidential system. Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Barak are the first directly elected Israeli prime ministers. In choosing them, Israelis cast two ballots, one for prime minister and one for a party ticket for Parliament. This has empowered the multiplying small parties, weakened Labor and Likud and diluted the bond between the Parliament and the prime minister. Dalia Itzik, the environment minister, said that Mr. Barak's ability to govern was hampered by the Labor Party's weakness. It is still the largest party. But with only 23 seats of the 120-member Parliament, it did not equip Mr. Barak with the "parliamentary tools" to avoid engaging in horse-trading negotiations to win the support of small parties for his initiatives, she said. A campaign to revert to the old, one-ballot system in time for the spring elections is gaining steam; a bill is pending in the Parliament. Some 21 of 23 Labor party lawmakers agreed today to support the initiative all except Haim Ramon, another potential challenger to Mr. Barak, and Mr. Barak himself, who would be hard-pressed to back it publicly because voters might assume he was frightened by a one-on-one contest with Mr. Netanyahu. Many Likudniks also support it. But, unsurprisingly, the smaller parties that benefit from the two-ballot system are unlikely to back the change. If the system does not change, will Mr. Barak have any troops to command? He who wanted to be the prime minister of "ev-e-ry-bo-dy," as his campaign slogan said, has ended up very much alone. He began with a mega-coalition of 75 out of 120 lawmakers left and right, secular and religious. He ended up with 30. He began with ambitions of expanding his Labor Party into a new unity faction called One Israel, and he ended up with a weakened, demoralized Labor Party confused about its identity. The New York Times on the Web http://www.nytimes.com press for more articles about this subject |
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