| Israel's North -- War or Peace? By Murray Kahl ** A White House spin released recently is that by neutralizing Syria, the US could focus on their dual containment policy in the region of Iraq and Iran. And following the White House standard approach of tagging anyone disagreeing with them as enemies of peace, the administration hopes to bully Israel through massive American aid in terms of both US money and US troops, troops most likely disguised under various names but still American troops who will be placed in harms' way. This is not peace. A true peace by definition cannot be purchased and does not need troops for reenforcement. Also, when dealing with non-unified opponents, the US and Israel must recognize that they are facing a guerilla war on numerous fronts, a guerilla war that cannot be won with American bribes nor American troops -- the Vietnam Syndrome. The fact that the talks in West Virginia were adjourned with no concrete results should not reassure the opponents of the withdrawal. A new meeting between the Israeli prime minister and Faruq al Shara will take place in only a week's time, and Stanley Greenberg, the image maker of both Clinton and Baraq, will arrive in Tel Aviv at about the same time. Having studied the results of the latest sociological studies and opinion polls, he will proceed with manipulating public opinion on the threshold of the planned referendum and/or the elections Baraq is considering as a substitute for a referendum he might lose. Yes, the US will neutralize a hapless Syria, with American bribes that not only consist of money but also legitimizes Syria's presence in and de-facto occupation of Lebanon. However, the danger to Israel's North is not from Syria, Syria was effectively neutralized by Israeli tanks within sight of Damascus, the danger is from Iranian clients that operate within Lebanon on Israel's border. Also, a fair question is whether Lebanese Muslims are satisfied with the Syrian occupation and the loss of their sovereign rights as a free nation? We know the answer regarding the Christian minority’s opposition to Syrian domination and Islamic domination. Rather than calm down the already tense situation in the region, the present US initiative will exacerbate existing high tensions leading to further bloodshed and eventually another civil war in Lebanon and possibly Syria (keep in mind that Hafiz al Assad's Alawites only account for 12% of the population). And this present US initiative will have the effect of weakening Israel to the point that it no longer is an effective ally. At this point, the US will find itself in a quagmire of its own making with enemies that once were friends. Signs that this scenario is unfolding are known and what once was questionable, such as who would HizbAllah pay allegiance to: Syria or Iran? no longer is unanswered. Reports that Ahmad Jibril, leader of the PFLP-GC, along with a number of Yasir Arafat's Damascus based opponents have sent a letter to Ali Khamenei, the spiritual guide of the Iranian revolution, asking that they be allowed to move to Tehran after the doors to armed struggle against Israel have been closed to them. A top Iranian official reports that the Iranian leadership received numerous messages from Palestinian and Lebanese figures who appear to worry about the fate of “revolutionary and liberation organizations and movements,” -- that is, terrorist groups-- once Israel on one hand and Syria and Lebanon on the other set up diplomatic relations assuming the success of the American peace initiative and some form of resultant detente. Sources report that a top Palestinian leader was reassured before leaving Tehran that revolutionary circles in Iran are not about to abdicate their commitments to revolutionary and liberation forces, irrespective of the position of President Khatami's government. This position was agreed upon by the Palestinian leader and officials in the Revolutionary Guard and Iranian intelligence. Also reported was that dozens of HizbAllah terrorists, including some of the cadres and troops from its military bases in south Lebanon and al Biqa, have received permission for residence in Iran. And moving to Iran late last year were a number of those being hunted by the Israeli secret service, the Mosad, and the CIA, for their alleged involvement in attacks against American and Israeli interests and their association with kidnaping. Adding to these indicators is that an examination of Iranian universities and other institutes of higher learning and seminaries indicate a higher than expected ratio of Lebanese Shiites and Palestinians from Syria and Lebanon in the student bodies. The Guide of the Revolution has been recently reported as ordering the allocation of monthly salaries for eight Palestinian figures who are currently residents of Damascus and the families of four Hamas leaders. Khamenei also was said to have ordered that special bonuses be disbursed to HizbAllah leaders over and above their monthly pay of US$5,000 12,000 from the Mujahedin Living Fund. Additional factors are numerous reports that last year the Palestinian rejectionist groups originally headquartered in Damascus moved their cadre and infrastructure to HizbAllah controlled areas in Lebanon. That the rebellious, Islamic radicals in Lebanon are now aligned with Iran is demonstrated by a diplomatic report revealing that the US administration sent an urgent cable to its embassy in Beirut asking the diplomatic mission to be extremely cautious and on alert following information from US monitoring stations in the Middle East that fundamentalists were acting suspiciously and planning a suicide attack against US interests and targets in Lebanon. The warning delineated the negotiations between Syria and Israel as the root cause, and the details of the report say US intelligence services are particularly concerned about the possibility of kidnaping, holding, or killing US nationals in Lebanon, attacking US establishments, and the possibility of an attack against the US Embassy. Israel is rapidly descending into the role of a beggar nation, and in its desperate quest for peace, we find instances of humiliating incidents as represented by Germans mediating between Israel and HizbAllah. The Germans report that Israel pledged to release all Lebanese detainees, whether present in al Khiyam camp or those being held in its jails if HizbAllah pledges to reveal the fate of the missing Israeli pilot Ron Arad. Yet, all is not proceeding smoothly as HizbAllah regards the Israeli offer as inadequate. HizbAllah Secretary General al Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah stressed that the mission of the Islamic Resistance is to liberate the land irrespective of the developments of the settlement process. He said the Resistance knew this from the very beginning and is working to accomplish it. Lebanon has never forgiven Arafat for their never ending civil war and are reacting to the implicit threat of Palestinian refugee camps located on Lebanese soil. They want the refugees out and aren't the least bit interested in where they go. Angry Lebanese security forces have arrested two Fatah leaders in the Sidon area. With this, the number of Palestinian leaders arrested by Lebanese authorities since October 1999 rises to five. That Lebanon is indeed no longer a sovereign nation is demonstrated by the Syrian official news agency SANA when it reported that Foreign Minister Faruq al Shar briefed Lebanese Prime Minister Dr. Salim al Huss on the details of the second round of talks with Israel held in West Virginia. SANA reported that Dr. Al Huss announced Lebanon, proceeding from an assumption of the inseparability of the Syrian/Lebanese tracks, will not take part in the talks unless the Syrian track makes substantial progress. Israel's future with its current administration is bleak as PM Baraq completes the hostile ring surrounding Israel. To the East they have Jordan and King Abdullah who is presently reaching a modus vivendi with Hamas and who has been well armed by the US. Jordan is uniquely the recipient of about 300 million dollars in the Wye Agreement funding provision of the Foreign Op. Bill, without being a participant to Wye. How strange! To the South, we find Egypt with new American weapons and even participating with the US in strategic maneuvers. To the North, we find Syria and its client Lebanon. Syria will soon be armed with new weapons provided by the US and large sums of money. These new Syrian assets along with an Israeli withdrawal from the strategically important Golan forebodes trouble. And we have Lebanon whose actions are predictable as long as Syria exercises dominion over the country. The major problem lies in all the terror groups controlled by Iran and positioned above Israel's northern border. And without an IDF presence nor a Security Zone to keep the peace, all Israel will have left is Syria's word for peace keeping. Assad's word at keeping promises is well known. Is there a solution for Israel's security and limiting American funding and American troops ? The answer is yes. Stay tuned. ** M. Kahl, Prof. PBCC ** Publisher Israeli & Global News |
